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AN ASSESSMENT OF THE POSSIBILITIES FOR RESTORING HUMAN RESOURCES IN THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF UKRAINE<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\n O<\/span><\/b>.<\/span><\/b>S. PopovYCH <\/span><\/b>1<\/span><\/sup> <\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\n https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5906-8358<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n O<\/span><\/b>.<\/span><\/b>P<\/span><\/b>. <\/span><\/b>KOSTRYTSIA <\/span><\/b>1<\/b><\/span><\/sup><\/p>\n https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1585-7264<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n 1 <\/span><\/sup>Dobrov Institute for Scientific and Technological Potential and Science History Studies of the NAS of Ukraine<\/span><\/p>\n Nauka<\/span> naukozn<\/span>. 202<\/span>4<\/span>, 4(1<\/span>2<\/span>6): <\/span>1<\/span>2<\/span>\u2014<\/span>21<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n https<\/span>:\/\/<\/span>doi<\/span>.<\/span>org<\/span>\/<\/span>10.15407\/<\/span>sofs<\/span>2024.04.012<\/span><\/a> <\/b><\/b><\/p>\n Section<\/span><\/b>: Problems of science and technology potential<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n Language:<\/span><\/b> Ukrainian<\/span><\/p>\n Abstract:<\/span><\/b> The results set out in this article continue the authors\u2019 analysis of annual data on the age structure of researchers in 2021\u20142023 provided by the institutes of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) of Ukraine. This study is based on the data presented as the number of persons in each age from 20 to 100 years. This made it possible to use a more simplified (and, therefore, more accurate) modification of the endogenous method of forecasting the evolution of human resources in R&D without the need of making certain assumptions. Projected estimates of the potential recover of the personnel in the NAS of Ukraine were derived for three options of youth replenishment: (i)\u00a0cessation of the annual decline in the number of newly coming researchers, observed in recent years; (ii)\u00a0year-by-year increase in the replenishment, doubling every five years; (iii)\u00a040-percent increase in the annual youth replenishment. The above three options can be considered optimistic, because only the losses due to natural mortality are counted on the assumption that the status of NAS researchers would be improved in a way to discourage them from leaving its institutions in search of better working conditions and pay. It turned out, however, that the first option (the replenishment stabilized) gives no grounds for expectations of the zero decline in the total number of researchers. This means that the NAS of Ukraine has been dying out like the other sectors of domestic R&D, in spite of its prolonged struggles to retain researchers amid spending cuts. The second option cannot arouse optimism as well, as even such a seemingly significant increase in the number of newcomers over at least 5\u20147 years cannot reverse the dying-out pattern of the existing age structure of researchers. The number of researchers can be increased with a higher pace by implementing the third option, although it involves extraordinary measures which would inculcate a deep conviction in the minds of both politicians and a broader public that the renaissance of the domestic R&D is a determinant of the country\u2019s future, would make the researcher\u2019s profession a most prestigious one, and would push up creating, for the above purpose, international charitable funds and inviting highly skilled professionals from abroad.<\/span><\/p>\n Keywords<\/span><\/b>:<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>age structure, human resources, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, youth replenishment, researchers of the NAS of Ukraine.<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/p>\n References<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n 1. Popovych, \u041e.S., Mischuk \u041e.\u041c., & Kostrytsia, \u041e.P. (2024). Dynamics of the age structure of the human resources potential of the NAS of Ukraine in 2021\u20142023 raises alarm.\u00a0<\/span>Visn. Nac. Akad. Nauk Ukr., 6, 3\u201413. <\/span>https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15407\/visn2024.06.003<\/span><\/a> [in Ukrainian]. <\/span><\/p>\n 2. Zagorodny, \u0410.G. (2024). On the main results of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in 2023 and the tasks for the next period: Report at the session of the General Meeting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine on April 24, 2024. <\/span>Visn. Nac. Akad. Nauk Ukr., (5), 10\u201417. <\/span>https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15407\/visn2024.05.010<\/span><\/a> [in Ukrainian]. <\/span><\/p>\n 3. Popovych, O.S., & Kostryts<\/span>\u0456<\/span>a, O.P. (2017). <\/span>Estimates of the Evolution of Age Structure and Numbers of Researchers in Ukraine for the Forthcoming Decade. Science and Science of Science, 1, 48\u201459. <\/span>https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15407\/sofs2017.01.048<\/span><\/a> [in Ukrainian]. <\/span><\/p>\n 4. Popovich, A.S., & Kostryts\u0456a, Ye.P. (2018). Evolution of the research staff in R&D: forecasting and regulation. Riga: LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing [in Russian]. <\/span><\/p>\n 5. Kurbatov, D. (2024). The restructuring of the research sector in Ukraine. Svitohliad, 19 (3), 4\u201411. URL: https:\/\/www.mao.kiev.ua\/biblio\/jscans\/svitogliad\/svit2024-19-3\/svitoglyad-3-2024-yats-04.pdf (last accessed: 25.09.24) [in Ukrainian]. <\/span><\/p>\n 6. Loktev, V.M. (2023). The National Academy of Sciences is 105! Non-holiday thoughts. Visn. Nac. Akad. Nauk Ukr., 11, 18\u201431. <\/span>https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15407\/visn2023.11.018<\/span><\/a> [in Ukrainian]. <\/span><\/p>\n