ESTIMATES OF THE EVOLUTION OF AGE STRUCTURE AND NUMBERS OF RESEARCHERS IN UKRAINE FOR THE FORTHCOMING DEСADE
1 O.S. POPOVYCH
1 O.P. KOSTRYTSYA
1 G.M. Dobrov Institute for Scientific and Technological Potential and Science History Studies of the NAS of Ukraine
Nauka naukozn. 2017, 1(95): 48-59
Section: Development of Science and Technology Potential
Abstract: A method to forecast evolution of the age structure of researchers in Ukraine is proposed and tested by forecasting probable change in the researchers’ age profile and numbers for 2020 and 2025, for two cases: when the government’s policy on R&D is unchanged and when the government undertakes radical measures to keep researchers of younger and medium age groups in research teams. It is demonstrated that the first case is fraught with even faster degradation of the Ukrainian R&D, making it incapable of self-reproduction, of contribution in the innovation-driven recovering of the economy and training of skilled personnel. This scenario can be practically avoided once the personnel can be kept in research organizations, although the situation is neglected to the extent that the echo of structural change in the domestic R&D over the recent years will be felt ten years later: the optimal age structure of researchers, which would secure harmonic phase dynamics of the role functions of researchers in research teams and self-reproduction of R&D personnel won’t be possibly created till 2025 if even the most favorable scenarios of R&D financing occur.
Keywords: age structure, age group, Ukrainian R&D, forecasting of the evolution of R&D potential, researcher.
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