AN ASSESSMENT OF THE POSSIBILITIES FOR RESTORING HUMAN RESOURCES IN THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF UKRAINE
O.S. PopovYCH 1
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5906-8358
O.P. KOSTRYTSIA 1
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1585-7264
1 Dobrov Institute for Scientific and Technological Potential and Science History Studies of the NAS of Ukraine
Nauka naukozn. 2024, 4(126): 12—21
https://doi.org/10.15407/sofs2024.04.012
Section: Problems of science and technology potential
Language: Ukrainian
Abstract: The results set out in this article continue the authors’ analysis of annual data on the age structure of researchers in 2021—2023 provided by the institutes of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) of Ukraine. This study is based on the data presented as the number of persons in each age from 20 to 100 years. This made it possible to use a more simplified (and, therefore, more accurate) modification of the endogenous method of forecasting the evolution of human resources in R&D without the need of making certain assumptions. Projected estimates of the potential recover of the personnel in the NAS of Ukraine were derived for three options of youth replenishment: (i) cessation of the annual decline in the number of newly coming researchers, observed in recent years; (ii) year-by-year increase in the replenishment, doubling every five years; (iii) 40-percent increase in the annual youth replenishment. The above three options can be considered optimistic, because only the losses due to natural mortality are counted on the assumption that the status of NAS researchers would be improved in a way to discourage them from leaving its institutions in search of better working conditions and pay. It turned out, however, that the first option (the replenishment stabilized) gives no grounds for expectations of the zero decline in the total number of researchers. This means that the NAS of Ukraine has been dying out like the other sectors of domestic R&D, in spite of its prolonged struggles to retain researchers amid spending cuts. The second option cannot arouse optimism as well, as even such a seemingly significant increase in the number of newcomers over at least 5—7 years cannot reverse the dying-out pattern of the existing age structure of researchers. The number of researchers can be increased with a higher pace by implementing the third option, although it involves extraordinary measures which would inculcate a deep conviction in the minds of both politicians and a broader public that the renaissance of the domestic R&D is a determinant of the country’s future, would make the researcher’s profession a most prestigious one, and would push up creating, for the above purpose, international charitable funds and inviting highly skilled professionals from abroad.
Keywords: age structure, human resources, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, youth replenishment, researchers of the NAS of Ukraine.
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