FORECASTS OF THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENT
1 V.М. TSILIBINA
1 Institute of Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Nauka naukozn. 2018, 1(99): 73-91
Section: Foreign science
Abstract: The article’s objective is to sum up information on trends and long-term forecasts of the global energy market. Forecasting becomes critically important in periods of high uncertainties about future developments in the global energy sector, caused by geopolitical shifts, global economy transformations, changing paradigms of market regulation, technological and environmental factors. Forecasting is not similar to predicting, as it allows for narrowing the range of uncertainties and offers a suitable tool for risk analysis of investment decisions that tend to be highly capital-intensive and long-term. As shown by the latest events, as soon as geopolitical tensions occur, even a little imbalance of demand and supply is capable to destabilize energy markets and trigger unpredictable behavior of prices, price wars to win over customers or reallocation of investment.
Trends associated with the global energy market and global energy consumption are il lustrated by data on gross consumption of energy resources and green gas emission, energy resources supply and consumption by country, dynamics of the global balance of energy consumption, estimated structure of primary energy consumption by category of fuel till 2040.
A comparison of the global energy sector forecasts made by International Energy Agency, British Petroleum Company and Russian experts shows discrepancies in the forecasted volumes of energy consumption and types of fuel and energy resources. They are due to the fact that energy sector constitutes a complex dynamic system of controversies arising from the key problems of the current global development: demographic, resource, financial, technological and ecological ones. The authenticity and reliability of energy forecasts is, therefore, conditional on the forecasting methodology used and due consideration for the multiplicity of factors. Actual results may differ from forecasted ones, being dependent on various factors, including commodity supplies, demand and pricing, political stability, macroeconomic environment, changes in the regulatory framework, availability of new technologies, natural calamities and unfavorable weather conditions, warfare, violent acts or sabotage.
This article can lay grounds for further efforts to inform broader public about global energy sector perspectives or potential areas of renewable energy use.
Keywords: fuel and energy resources, energy sector, global energy market, forecast, renewable energy sources, liquefied natural gas, fossil fuels, non-fossil fuels.